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Players the Seattle Mariners Could Move at the MLB Trade Deadline

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The Seattle Mariners came into the season with a realistic chance at contending. They added Nelson Cruz and Seth Smith to an offense that already features Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. The team also brought back many of the same standout pitchers that helped propel the team on the mound.

Things haven’t gone as planned.

Only the white-flag waiving Oakland Athletics sit below Seattle in the American League West, so it may be time for the team to trade some pieces.

The team isn’t going into full rebuild mode, but rather “reload” mode. Expiring contracts who aren’t likely to stick around are some of the more likely players to be dealt. Consistently underperforming players should be shopped as well. In other words, Felix Hernandez, Canoand the rest of the team’s core aren’t going anywhere.

Here are some of the players who could be traded.

Logan Morrison, 1B

First base is a power position—or rather, players with a significant of power/run-driving in ability play there. Presenting Logan Morrison, a first baseman with only 12 home runs and a paltry .222 batting average and a .665 OPS.

Seattle should be selling teams on Morrison being a quality bench bat, because he hasn’t worked so far as a Mariner. The former Miami Marlin owns a .242 batting average and 23 home runs in 193 games with the M’s. That’s simply not cutting it, especially for a team in need of offensive-minded players.

Austin Jackson, CF

This one is tough. Jackson has the potential to be an impact offensive player, as well as a plus defender, but like Morrison he hasn’t hit in Seattle. Throw in his impending free agent status at the end of the season and you have two prime reasons to deal the former Detroit Tiger.

The M’s did well to acquire Jackson for Nick Franklin, but the centerfielder has struggled in the Emerald City. He entered Seattle as a career .277 hitter. This has translated to a disappointing .243 batting average and .598 OPS with the M’s.

He’s likely going to cost a good deal of money, so Seattle would be best off trading him for a good (but probably not great) return, and invest in another centerfielder in free agency.

J.A. Happ, Hisashi Iwakuma SP

Another impending free agent, J.A. Happ has been solid for the Mariners this season. He owns a quality 3.77 FIP (second lowest to Felix on the team) and has been a stabling presence in the rotation.

Iwakuma, on the other hand, hasn’t posted the numbers that saw him net Cy Young and MVP votes in 2013. He hasn’t posted the numbers that helped him win 15 games and post a sub-4 ERA/FIP (3.52, 3.25) last season.

Still, Seattle needs to make room in the rotation. Felix is an obvious lock and Taijuan Walker, Mike Montgomery, James Paxton and Roenis Elias aren’t going to fit into three spots. As it stands, the team’s rotation in four years is going to be Felix and the previously mentioned four. It’s plausible to keep Iwakuma around for another year or two, but he would bring much more in a trade than Happ given his track record. Seattle should be actively shopping Happ, while listening on Iwakuma.

Fernando Rodney, RP

This one is obvious. Rodney has been abysmal out of the bullpen for the Mariners, and dealing him will free up more innings for relievers like Vidal Nuno and Tom Wilhelmsen. Rodney is a free agent at season’s end, so the team should trade him for whatever they can get. Carson Smith, Mark Lowe, Joe Beimel and a soon-to-be-healthy Charlie Furbish leave the team with enough quality relievers so that Rodney wouldn’t be missed.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

David Price Trade: How the Mariners Have Made Out So Far

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Nearly a month ago, the baseball world was thrown into a frenzy. Not just because it was the non-waiver trade deadline, but because David Price was traded. That the former Cy Young winner had been dealt wasn’t the shock. Everyone and the foul pole knew that was coming for years, but the shock was who acquired him— the Detroit Tigers. Detroit didn’t just do it on their own, they got the Seattle Mariners involved— acquiring Price from Tampa Bay, flipping Drew Smyly and minor league shortstop Willy Adames to Tampa and sending Austin Jackson to Seattle, who in turn sent Nick Franklin to the Rays.

While most will talk about how Detroit came away as a huge winner or maybe Tampa Bay didn’t get as much as it could have, the Mariners are the forgotten team in the trade. Seattle made out like highway bandits. Highway bandits.

The Mariners’ offensive output was horrendous. The infield is excused from this discussion because of Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. While the infield gets a pass, the outfield doesn’t. The pre-trade deadline offensive production in the outfield was dreadful.

Like any good general manager of a contending team, Jack Zduriencik made a trade to fix that. In actuality, he made two. One was to bring in Chris Denorfia, who is at best a platoon option on a good team, and the second involved acquiring Jackson.

The one-time Yankee farmhand hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in the Emerald City. He’s hitting .227 with a .542 OPS and is averaging one strikeout per game. But, at age 27, Jackson still has room to improve and time to get back on track. At best he’s a .290-ish hitter who’ll reach double digits in homeruns, steals, triples and approach 30 doubles.  In addition, he plays strong defense in center field. The caveat with Austin Jackson is that he strikes out a lot. He paced the league with 170 punch outs his rookie season and fanned at least 100 times every season he’s been in the big leagues.

So, maybe he strikes out a lot. Maybe too much.  But at this point, the Mariners will take any offense they can get, no matter what the cost (i.e. lots of strikeouts). It wasn’t exactly like the M’s acquired a .227 hitter in the trade; Jackson hit .273 in 100 games for Detroit. If he can get close to that number, he’ll be exactly what the Mariners need.

What made the Jackson trade look so one sided was what Zduriencik gave up to acquire the former Tiger— minor league second baseman Nick Franklin. Once thought to be one half of the Mariners’ double play combo of the future, along with Brad Miller, Franklin hit a mere .225 in his first season. Despite that, he showed promise with 12 homeruns and 45 runs driven in across only 102 games. All of that progress was seemingly chucked out the window when Seattle signed current offensive catalyst (and second baseman) Robinson Cano. Franklin was then thrown into a spring training battle with Miller for the starting shortstop job. Miller won the job, hence making Franklin expandable.

The second baseman only got into 17 games with the Mariners. He hit an extremely underwhelming .128. His OPS over those games? .363. It wasn’t a case of Franklin being in the minors because of lack of available at bats in Seattle. It was because of a lack of production in Seattle.

The bottom line is that the Mariners acquired Austin Jackson for Nick Franklin. They acquired an above-average center fielder for a minor league second baseman who was failing to produce in the majors, an established player with a track record for above-average play for a player whose value comes more from a promise that may or may not come, as opposed to on-the-field play.

The Mariners didn’t bring in David Price like the rumor mill thought they would, but they were still involved in the trade. And from their perspective, it looks pretty good.

 

All stats courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com/ unless otherwise noted.

Seattle Mariners: Why the Team Should Trade for Matt Kemp

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The Seattle Mariners reportedly had conversations with the Dodgers about incumbent outfielder Matt Kemp.

Kemp is reportedly not being moved, but the M’s should maintain interest in the two-time All-Star.

After the ambitious, low-buy acquisitions of Logan Morrison and Corey Hart, the team’s lineup will look something like this-

  1. CF Dustin Ackley
  2. 3B Kyle Seager
  3. 2B Robinson Cano
  4. DH Corey Hart (he only wears sunglasses when it’s sunny, just so we’re clear)
  5. 1B Logan Morrison
  6. LF Michael Saunders
  7. C Mike Zunino
  8. SS Brad Miller
  9. RF Abraham Almonte

That’s a pretty solid lineup. In terms of the division standings, that group would probably get you higher than the Astros, and should the pitching hold up, above the Angels. If Hart and Morrison can have bounce-back years, and (again) pitching forbid, the team has a good chance to surpass Texas.

Acquiring Kemp would vault them past Texas and the Angels. Something that seemed absurd four months ago. Oakland may be out of reach, but bringing in Matt Kemp would put the Mariners in a position to legitimately contend for a Wild Card berth.

The Dodgers’ outfielder would bring a perfect blend of, well, everything to the Mariners. Kemp’s defense would shine in still-spacious Safeco Field. Hitting him cleanup in the lineup listed above could be potentially lethal. Imagine this-

  1. RF Abraham Almonte
  2. 3B Kyle Seager
  3. 2B Robinson Cano
  4. CF Matt Kemp
  5. DH Corey Hart (he still only wears sunglasses when it’s sunny)
  6. 1B Logan Morrison
  7. LF Michael Saunders
  8. C Mike Zunino
  9. SS Brad Miller

Almonte is the “projected” leadoff hitter only based on the fact that he has the foot speed to create at the top of the order, and Ackley can’t play right field. A leadoff hitter would probably be the next item on the Mariners’ to-do list. Ackley could be traded in an effort to get one.

The Yankees, among others, have inquired about the former first-round pick.  Ideally, Seattle could flip Ackley and one of their lesser relievers for one of their incumbent outfielders, Brett Gardner. Here’s another lineup prediction with Gardner (bear with me on this)-

  1. LF Brett Gardner
  2. 3B Kyle Seager
  3. 2B Robinson Cano
  4. CF Matt Kemp
  5. DH Corey Hart
  6. 1B Logan Morrison
  7. RF Michael Saunders/Abraham Almonte
  8. C Mike Zunino
  9. SS Brad Miller

That lineup would contend with Oakland for the division. Not only could that lineup, coupled with the Mariners’ underrated pitching staff, contend with Oakland, but they could compete with the best of them. Outside of Detroit, St. Louis, Los Angeles and a regressing (for the moment) Boston, Seattle could have the most talented team.

This isn’t even mentioning former top-prospects Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak and Nick Franklin, all of whom could be shopped to add to the M’s bullpen or rotation.

Getting to this point won’t be easy. Seattle’s going to have to take on some money as well as give up a solid player or two to acquire Kemp. The other trades won’t be cakewalks, but should the Mariners do it, they could be looking at a playoff berth for the first time in a long, long time.

 

Determining the Mariners’ Outfield of the Future

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The Mariners probably can’t believe their luck with the embarrassment of riches they have in terms of young, exciting talent. Kyle Seager is already a bona fide star, Nick Franklin and Brad Miller continue to settle into their respective middle infield roles earlier than expected and Mike Zunino has showed well in a limited stint with the big boys. The future cornerstones of the team also include the highly heralded “Big Three” pitchers Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. The current season, while leaving much to be desired from a win-loss standpoint, has yielded the M’s a group of potentially useful relievers such as Yoervis Medina, Danny Farquhar and Brandon Maurer, the latter of whom could still be a major league starter down the road.

What’s missing, you’ll notice, is the mention of any outfield player. The questions surrounding the current group, even those in AAA, are numerous. Can Dustin Ackley establish himself as an outfielder both offensively and defensively? Does either Endy Chavez (35) or Raul Ibanez (41) have anything left in the tank after the conclusion of next season? Can Michael Saunders hit above .250? Can Carlos Peguero hit for contact? Will Franklin Gutierrez play 140 games in a season ever again? Or even 100?

These questions would be all right if the M’s had a handful of outfield prospects waiting in the wings. They don’t. DJ Peterson, the M’s most recent first-round pick, might be moved there to avoid being blocked by Seager, and while his bat will be strong in the outfield; he will never be Ichiro Suzuki. Austin Wilson, another recent draft pick, shows promise defensively in the outfield but is still, like Peterson, in his first season professionally. Not to mention they are both at High A Everett.

The Mariners’ biggest question is who will be in that outfield in the future? Potentially Chavez and Ibanez could be gone come next Opening Day. The alternatives are to make multiple trades for outfielders or sign replacement players on similar contracts to the previously mentioned trio.

Seattle needs to start finding itself an outfield that works now and later. Best case scenario, the team would probably like to see Guti return to the form he showed in his earlier days in Seattle and patrol center field. Next to him in right would probably be Saunders, showing the promise he has flashed numerous times. Over in left, for the short term, would probably be Ibanez, should he continue to hit home runs. Long term, Ackley or Stefan Romero could all be options if they can hit well enough to stay in the lineup.

The most likely case scenario will probably play out somewhat like it has this season. The M’s will tinker and mix and match with a group of low-risk, high-reward veterans on short contracts while they wait for prospects to come to the big club. Whether those be players like Peterson and Wilson or prospects acquired in a trade, the M’s future out field is a long ways away.

Why the Vetoed Justin Upton Trade Was a Good Thing

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Last offseason the M’s almost acquired Justin Upton. Almost. The Mariners would have sent Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor.

Drink it all in.

That’s Seattle’s second baseman of the future, their two best bullpen arms, plus a potential ace.

Does that sound like the haul to give up for a player like Upton?

Justin Upton is not the player he was in 2009 or 2011. At least statistically he isn’t. He probably isn’t a threat to hit .300, but he will turn in close to a .270 batting average.  He may hit a lot of home runs, somewhere around 25 or 30, but that’s it. Also, he has never reached the 100 RBI plateau, an interesting fact considering the supposed stature of Upton as a hitter.

So, does a hitter with a .270 batting average, 20-30 homerun potential and less than 100 RBIs a year (last season he drove in 67 in 150 games) sound like the guy to trade for a future ace, second baseman, and two dominant bullpen arms?

The answer is a resounding, “No.”

I’m not disparaging Justin Upton’s talent as a player, I just think his market value at the time was overblown.

Put it this way, not only did the Mariners keep nearly a fifth of their future roster, they also found a suitable mish-mash of players to replace, and out produce Upton.

Meet Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, Michael Morse and the since-departed Jason Bay. Plans B, C, D, E, in no particular order. The M’s brought this group in to provide the same kinds of things Justin Upton would provide, a middle of the order presence. The team might have gone a different direction in filling out the rest of their lineup with Upton seeing as these four players are… four players, and Upton is just one. But at the end of the day, they play the same role.

And the M’s combination has done it better.

Justin Upton’s 2013 WAR with his new team, the Atlanta Braves, 1.9.

Kendrys Morales’ 2013 WAR, 2.9.

Raul Ibanez’ 2013 WAR, 0.8.

Jason Bay’s 2013 WAR, 0.5.

Michael Morse’s 2013 WAR, -0.6.

Collectively that spits out a WAR of 3.6. And while that may be four players’ output versus a singular player’s output, the different ways the M’s got that output is key. The price for Upton would have been two ace relievers, an actual ace and a second baseman. The price for the current M’s was a backup catcher, who was blocking the path of Mike Zunino, and a starting pitcher on an expiring contract who likely didn’t factor in the team’s long term plans.

It’s a good thing that Justin Upton vetoed a trade to Seattle. Yes, he would have brought star-power to the team, but since the veto, the M’s have found a much better solution for their lineup, statically and monetarily. Not to mention they keep the team intact for the long haul.

The Mariners’ Future is Now

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A quick pan over the Mariners’ depth chart shows Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino in the starting nine. This wouldn’t be too far-fetched if it were, say next year’s depth chart, but this is where the world is presently; the Mariners future is also their present.

The M’s probably would have liked to have had Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero each put a respective stranglehold on second base and catcher so that the team could ease Franklin and Zunino into their roles for the next decade. Ackley hit .205 with five extra base hits in 45 games, while Montero struggled to fit in defensively and was a smidgen better batting than Ackley with a .208 clip. The two obviously didn’t execute said strangleholds, and here we are.

This might be a good thing for the Mariners, all of course pending the youngsters perform well.

Zunino is obviously the future at catcher. He’s proved that with his own body of work. Not to mention having Montero prove the fact for him with his defensive shortcomings. This lets him get a head-start on being the M’s everyday catcher while continuing his learning process. Everyone knew he was going to take over for Montero at some point between the start of this season and the end of next. This just accelerates the process and lets Montero transition to more of an everyday utility player, one who might catch a day or two a week and play the other games at first base or as the DH.

The Franklin transition seems to be working out for all parties involved. Mariners, Franklin and Ackley. Franklin is currently preforming well for Seattle with a .299 clip at the plate while providing plus defense. Ackley is ripping the cover off the ball at AAA Tacoma, a good sign after his iffy stint with Seattle to start the year, with a .383 batting average.

This could all work out well for Seattle. Zunino could establish himself as the catcher sooner than expected. Franklin could integrate himself into the core of the team, also sooner than expected. Ackley could come back firing from a hitting spree in Tacoma, and Montero could figure things out after he returns from injury.

Things are looking up for the Mariners.