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2014 NFC Championship Game Recap: Why the Seahawks Won

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Before the game yesterday I wrote about the five reasons why the Seahawks would beat the 49ers.

Those things included:  Collin Kaepernick’s struggles in Seattle, Frank Gore’s struggles in Seattle and on the road in general, the team’s (Seattle) tendency to intercept a lot of passes, Marshawn Lynch heating up at the right time and 23 point games.

Generally, when I predict things I feel like I’ll jinx the game. It sounds ridiculous, but from a fan standpoint, everyone goes through it.

Not to toot my own horn, but I think I got the five things spot on. Granted, there were other things the team needed to do, and did, to win. But to call all of those things correctly, or close to it, is pretty bizarre. Starting with the first reasons and working down the list, here’s how the Hawks won.

The Seahawks are a fantastic defensive unit. They make the best of quarterbacks look mundane, but they make Collin Kaepernick look horrendous compared to his other displays. Kaepernick had 11 interceptions this season. Six of them occurred against the Seahawks, five of them coming in Seattle. SpongeBob’s grouchy pal  Kaepernick kept his team in the game with his scrambling ability by carrying the ball for 130 yards. His passing numbers were less inspiring as he threw for a paltry (compared to his normal play) 153 yards. Keeping him in check was a huge factor in the team winning.

Number two on the list of reasons was Frank Gore’s struggles on the road. Maybe not struggles, after all Gore is an All-Pro caliber running back, but the book on him this year has been that he’s done better at home than on the road. When the teams play in the Pacific Northwest, Seattle has stuffed Gore and the Niners’ non-QB related run game as of late. I didn’t think Gore would be stopped like he was earlier in Seattle. There was no way he ended up with 16 yards again. He’s simply too good. But, here we sit on Tuesday and the box score reads like this, F.Gore:  11 carries, 14 yards.

Third on the list was interceptions, and there wasn’t a more telling number. Kaepernick tossed two of them, one of which happened to be a game ending, conference-clinching pick by Malcolm Smith off of a tipped pass by Richard Sherman.

Marshawn Lynch continues to play his best football at the right time. After besting the Saints with 140 yards, he put in 109 against San Francisco. None more important than a massive 40-yard run to tie the game at the onset of the third quarter.

Finally, and maybe not as accurate, was my proclamation of 23 point games. The Niners scored 23 points in each of their previous three games. All wins. They didn’t score 23, but the Seahawks did. And they’re heading to the Super Bowl.

5 Reasons Why the Seahawks will Beat the 49ers

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There is absolutely no chance I would even consider picking against Seattle at home. I could care less that the 49ers are on a tear and their offense is clicking, etc.

Here are five reasons why the Seahawks will win on Sunday

1. Collin Kaepernick

If you’ve never been to a game at CenturyLink Field, or aren’t a Seahawks fan, you probably believe the ludicrous commercial that shows the Niners’ QB acting unfazed as a horde of “fans” jeer at him like an angry mob. Not only is the commercial a gross overstatement when it comes to Seahawks fans (they don’t officially say that the fans are from/in Seattle, but’s it’s definitely implied), but it’s also a gross overstatement of Kaepernick’s ability in Seattle. Sure, he can act like he doesn’t hear anything walking from the team bus to the stadium, but when he gets on the field in Seattle he looks extremely affected by the crowd noise.

The last time the two teams met in Seattle, Squidward Gargamel  Kaepernick posted a horrendous stat-line that would have looked all the more worse without his 87 rushing yards. The numbers are as follows:

13 for 28, 127 yards, 46.4 completion percentage, 4.54 yards per attempt, three interceptions, 14.0 Total QBR and a 20.1 quarterback rating.

Not exactly sparkling numbers there. Part of all this is simply that the Seahawks are tremendous as a defensive unit and make the best QBs look average, or worse. But part of it also has to do with the environment; Kaepernick struggles in Seattle. It’s a little harder to tell on TV, but in person you can tell from his body language that he looks exceedingly flustered by all the noise.

2. Frank Gore

Home field advantage and where the game is played really make a difference for Frank Gore. In the Niners’ Week 14 win he posted 110 yards on 17 carries. Against Seattle in Week 2? 16 yards on nine carries. These both look like outliers in the grand scheme of things, but the rub is that Gore struggles, comparatively, on the road. He has a decent split of home-to-away yards this year with 639 of his 1,128 yards at home and the remaining 489 on the road. However, if you take out his 153 yard outburst in St. Louis the road total dips to 336. That’s good for a stupendous 48 yards a game! The Seahawks won’t hold him to 16 yards like last time, but anything under 75 or 60 certainly won’t be surprising.

(On a somewhat unrelated side note, Gore ran for a total of 150 yards in playoff victories over Green Bay and Carolina. That’s only 10 more rushing yards than Marshawn Lynch gained total against New Orleans.)

3. Rising Interception Rates

Despite not intercepting any of Drew Brees’ passes, it can be argued that the Seahawks could have easily picked off a few passes. Before the playoffs began, the Hawks’ D produced 11 interceptions over its final three games. Given Gore’s ghastly (excuse the alliteration) road numbers in general, and against Seattle, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kaepernick throw more. This would play right into the Legion of Boom’s collective hands seeing as Dan Quinn’s unit has accounted for half of the 49ers’ QB interception total this season.

4. Unleashing the Beast

(If I had a nickel for every time I heard this in relation to Marshawn Lynch this season, I would probably have enough money to buy my own NBA team.)

Marshawn Lynch is heating up at exactly the right time. After a phenomenal 140 yards against the Saints last week, Lynch will look to carry over the momentum against a Niners team that he scored four times against in two regular season meetings. The 140 yards isn’t just an outlier; the former Bills player ran for 97 yards and a score against St. Louis to close out the regular season.

5. Lack of 23 Point Games

The San Francisco 49ers like 23 points. Of the seven consecutive games they have won, in four of them (and the last three in a row) the team scored 23 points. The Seahawks haven’t given up 23 points in a game since Week Six of 2012 when they beat New England 24-23. They haven’t lost a game when allowing 23 points since 2011, before Russell Wilson was even out of college.

King Me- The Sonics Are Back!!!

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The one day I don’t check any of my usual sports sites first thing in the morning is the day the Sonics are sold.

Granted nothing is official. We are still awaiting an official announcement from the NBA Board of Governors on the approval of the sale. And then there is Kevin Johnson’s last-ditch effort that is the equivalent of a pitcher hitting with two outs, no on and down by one in the bottom of the ninth. There is an ice cube’s chance in hell it happens. That being Johnson convincing the Board to keep the team in Sacramento.

They should move to Seattle, by the way, and that’s not just me being from Seattle, but also because the Hansen/Balmer/Nordstrom group is forking over nearly a billion dollars of their hard-earned money to bring a team here. Why would you deny that?

Think of the possibilities. Think of all the talent that the Sonics will have. DeMarcus Cousins is going to flourish into the NBA’s best big man. Isaiah Thomas is going to be the next big time short point guard, at the very least a somewhat reincarnation of Nate Robinson. Thomas Robinson is going to blossom as a power forward in time. Tyreke Evans could be a really dangerous player if he plays like he played when he was a rookie (something you don’t always hear.)

I’m no NBA agent, but Seattle would be a really “cool” (a la Pete Carroll) landing spot for free agents. Not to mention all that Seattle-area talent might want to play at home. They could be Washington natives looking for a one-year deal and decide to play at home. Nate Robinson could fit that bill. Should Brandon Roy not have his contract guaranteed by the T-Wolves, he would fit. Jon Brockman is out there; maybe he regenerates some of that UW magic in a Sonics uniform.

There is almost too much to get excited about.

The team can finally retire Gary Payton’s jersey. Retire Shawn Kemp’s jersey. Definitely not retire Wally Walker’s. Kevin Calabro could come back.

There are already talks of Phil Jackson joining the team in a “mentor” role. RC Buford (who has engineered the most underrated sports dynasty of all time in San Antonio) and Larry Bird are also being tossed around as potential front office names.

We could bring back Nate McMillian, or if all else fails trade everyone not named Cousins, Robinson, Thomas and Brooks to Denver for George Karl.

There are just so many opportunities. Seattle Center will have its most exciting tenant back (albeit for two or three years at most.) Plus, you know whenever those darn (wanted to use a different word there) Raiders come to town for the first time, the Sonics are going to beat them. It’s a given.

Key Arena: The Sonics soon to be temporary home.

Key Arena: The Sonics soon to be temporary home.

This just couldn’t have come at a better time.

Put aside the fact that those darn (wanted to use another word, again) 49ers made it to the Super Bowl. Put aside the fact that UW, WSU, Gonzaga and Seattle University all lost by 10 points or less over the weekend. Put aside the fact that it could have been the Seahawks in the Super Bowl (you know we would have beaten Squidward and friends.) Put aside it all for a moment.

The Sonics are back.

What are you most excited about?